Is the Corona Virus (COVID-19) overhyped by the media? Isn't it another flu?
NO & NO. So what is the big deal? Well for starters, we don't have a vaccine or cure for COVID-19 yet. Secondly, the number of cases of COVID-19 are growing exponentially. Unfortunately the average human brain isn't wired to visualize exponential math very well. Don't worry, I got you covered!
👇Try the calculator below to get a feel of what exponential math is👇
Suppose we have a single person infected with the Corona Virus (COVID-19).
Assuming each infected person infects between 2 to 3 other new persons
(let's call this number R0).
Feel free to use the slider to play around with this value. Notice how quickly infected numbers rise and fall depending on R0's value.
60,632,981
Total cases (ignoring deaths and recovery). Assuming 20 generations
Short answer: EVERYONE should compulsorily stay home. Even if they're fine
(also remember that the symptoms may take a while to show).
If we can control the number of average new infections (R0), we can greatly reduce the number of new cases. If the average number of people infected by a infected person is between 2 and 3, we get 60 Million (6 crore) total cases in just 20 generations.
However, if we reduce the number of people a person infects to, say, 1.3, we get just 630 in 20 generations! Such a huge difference! Don't believe me? Enter 1.3 in the slider and see for yourself!
To stop the spread of the virus, we need to reduce R0 as much as possible (China has managed to reduce their R0 greatly so we know it is possible). We have limited hospital beds and ICU facilities, we can't afford to overwhelm our healthcare pipeline at a time like this. See what happens when the number of cases go beyond what hospitals can handle
🏠Our best shot at stopping COVID-19 is if each and every person (that includes you and your loved ones) stays home.
👐Washing your hands regularly and not touching your face will help a lot too.
🛀Have a bath each time you return home from the outside and keep your dirty clothes seperated.
Share this with someone you care about:
[If there are country-specific programmes, tell me and I'll add it here]
3blue1brown - Exponential Growth and Epidemics
Tomas Pueyo - Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Fast.ai - COVID-19: A data science perspective
[If you know any good resources on the topic, tell me and I'll add them here]
This site was heavily inspired by @jajoosam's letter to his school. Thanks Samarth!
Also, special thanks to my friend Kunal for his inputs and @thesephist's for blocks.css!